MLB Divsion Series Thoughts

MLB Playoff Preview

ELTEDE Team by Team Breakdown

Before I make any predictions, I think it is worth noting that I have never seen a more competitive outlook on paper among the four American League teams. There seems to be very little to separate them, however, there are some differences.

One of the problems in picking the American League series' is how each team finished. Nobody was really lighting it up on their march to October. Each struggled with one or many parts of the game or with injuries. Many times it is relatively easy to pick winners based on who was hot coming down the stretch. In this case it might be difficult to determine winners based on who was the least unproductive.

On paper the National League seems like a complete slam dunk for one team. However, over the years we've all seen that this can also prove tricky with some team's pitching staff getting really hot in the playoffs and carrying them past the favorites. I'm not sure if that will happen this year but I wouldn't rule it out.

This week I will be selecting my picks for the American and National League Division series winners only. I will wait until the next round before sticking my neck out too far to pick those winners.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Texas vs. Tampa Bay.

Texas' strength is hitting and their vulnerability is in the starting rotation. Whereas Tampa Bay's strengths lie in in their pitching, defense, speed and ability to manufacture runs. However, the Rays starting pitchers have been mediocre at best outside of David Price in September and their hitting has been almost non-existent. Yet they still managed to squeak out the division by being able to produce runs by any means possible. How they hit against Texas' average pitching will dictate how this series plays out. The Rays have the POTENTIAL to put up a lot of hits but only do so in streaks.

Texas, on the other hand, can hit with anybody. If their starting pitchers can stay in the game long enough to get to the end of their pen they could be tough to beat. Cliff Lee and David Price in Game 1 are a toss up but after that the Rays have the pitching advantage. Good pitching usually beats good hitting. However, the mediocre pitching the Rays have displayed could be in trouble. If the real Matt Garza and James Shields show up then the Rays have the edge.

Selection: Texas. If the Rangers can split the first two in St. Pete then I think they will go home and really hit in Arlington and it may not come back to Tampa Bay.

New York vs. Minnesota.

Minnesota won their division the way they have for so many years. They played sound fundamental baseball with clutch performances at the most crucial times of August and September. The fact that they struggled after they clinched is a bit of a concern because they still had the best record to play for, but then again, the Yankees struggled down the stretch too.

The Yankees struggled coming down the stretch and although that may not seem to be a concern to some fans because the feeling is usually 'hey they are the Yankees, they'll figure it out' I would disagree. The biggest mess I saw with the Yankees in September was the pitching staff. While most people were concerned with the starters after Sabathia I couldn't help but notice that their bullpen is in complete shambles and Mariano Rivera is not as invincible. This might be due to him having to pitch longer in tight situations because Giradi didn't have as much faith in everyone else in the bullpen.

Selection: Minnesota. The Yankees will have to rely on out hitting the Twins in order to win this series. But I think the bullpen acquisitions made by Minnesota this year may prevent that situation from getting too far away from them. I think the Twins have more bullpen weapons than they ever had in order to stop the Yankees.

NATIONAL LEAGUE.

Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia.

If ever there appeared to be a mismatch on paper this series would appear to be it. Philadelphia will pitch three starters in this extended series who could be aces somewhere else. Cincinnati has a bunch of mid-level starters and an average bullpen. Dusty Baker managed to get a lot out of these guys this year.

Against most teams you could say that the Reds have the hitting advantage that will cover up the pitching issues. But this is the Phillies we're talking about. With two launching pads for stadiums in this series it would appear that 11 – 10 games would be commonplace. But see above; three aces. Cincinnati will need an extraordinary effort to pull this one out.

Selection: Philadelphia

Atlanta vs. San Francisco.

One of the better debates for this series might be who deserves Rookie of the Year honors. The choice is between Buster Posey and Jason Heyward. Although the votes need to be in before the playoffs start wouldn't it be nice to see the two have a head to head showdown for the award.

To my eye it looked like Atlanta pieced this thing together all year to get where they are. They have a pretty good pitching staff with a good deal of experience in the clutch. They have played good defense and have shown a lot of versatility in their lineup. They also have the good luck charm Eric Hinske coming off the bench. If the Braves make it past the National League it will be the fourth year in a row he has been in the World Series, all with different teams.

San Francisco's major strength in September was their pitching staff. They can throw three to four above average starters out there and be followed up with a very solid bullpen. They have also had very clutching hitting in the last month. However, I like Atlanta's starting eight offensively over San Francisco.

Selection: San Francisco. I think the home field advantage will be the difference in this one. I expect this series to be the most competitive and compelling going down to the fifth game. Sorry Bobby Cox.